Sunnis – The Conservative-Patriot Christian Right

Thoughts on Rift Caused by Hamas-Israel War, Wading into Islamic Ideology & Culminating into Mahdi World Order

4-Stages of Islamic Conquest (Photo borrowed from El Gato Weebee – WordPress)

By John R. Houk, Blog Editor

© October 17, 2023

There is NO Doubt Hamas fired massive rockets and sent terrorist soldiers into Israel on 10/7/23. After the “NO DOUBT” of yet another pseudo-Palestinian attack that so-far (or at least the last time I read) has led 1300 barbaric murders of Israelis and any unlucky non-Muslim Westerners who happened to be in the attack area.

THEN the Pro-Palestinian and ironic allies of Anti-Globalists/Leftists & blatant blame all-Jews Antisemites vs Pro-Israel, Zionists (Leftist Zionists, Conservative Zionists & Christian Zionists) rabidly began to skew and probably twist facts with Propaganda. The Pro-Palestinian side (except the Anti-Globalists) celebrated the massacre inside Israel. The Anti-Globalists (many of which I have admired in their stands against NWO Tyranny) condemned Israel’s response which undoubtedly will lead to pseudo-Palestinian mass-deaths not involved in the attack on Israel – calling the Israeli response a genocide.

The Hamas attack and the Israeli response has vastly divided friends based on whose narrative one supported. Admittedly, I’m a Christian Zionists who has always believed the Arabs who call themselves Palestinians (the Arab-Palestinian history of being located in the area is actually miniscule compared to the history of Jews being located in the area) should be forced to leave the Biblically Promised Land to the descendants of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob. (NOTE: Whether factual or not in reality, Arab-Muslims consider themselves the descendants of Abraham through Ishmael born to Sarah’s handmaiden Hagar. Ishmael IS NOT a part of the Abraham, Isaac [child of Promise], and Jacob [renamed Israel by the Almighty] Promise.) My Christian Zionist sentiments has sadly placed me at odds with many Anti-Globalists who oppose a New World Order who are more concerned about Leftist-Globalists who have infiltrated Israel’s government perhaps even worse than the Leftist-Globalist infiltration in the U.S. Government. And of course, Jew-Hating (regardless of the existence of Covenant-Keeping Jews) Antisemites who disseminate the propaganda ALL Jews are the blame for the ills of the world and desire to rule as a Jewish-Controlled World Order.

The Antisemite Jew-Hatred accusation is POPPYCOCK since Covenant-Keeping Jews are ONLY interested in their Jewish Homeland and NOT World-Control.

ON THE OTHERHAND, Islam’s revered writings (Quran, Hadith & Sira) demand a world conquest to force ALL Peoples to submit to the will of Allah. AND Islam’s early history of brutal conquests and empire reflects a Global-Islamic World Domination agenda. (Inconvenient Documented Truth History by Andrew Bostom & M.A. Khan)

AND YET, due to the infiltration of Leftist-Globalist infiltration in Israel’s government and a history of Leftist Zionist history in Israel, there are many reasons to question the Israel Government Bureaucracy (just like the highly corrupted U.S. Government Bureaucracy) which undoubtedly more aligned with WEF-NWO agenda designs than the Almighty’s Covenant that has allowed the Return of Jews to a sovereign Homeland.

A short post by Pam Kohler at Salvation and Survival gives a Christian Zionist such as I a great snapshot about right-and-wrong criticism of Israel noting the existence of the influence of Leftist Jews who have zero inclination toward the Almighty’s Covenant of a Biblical Homeland. Kohler’s post is entitled, “The Lord Has Chosen Zion; He Desires It For His Dwelling Place!” I posted the below comment on her post, you’ll have to go there to read Kohler’s response:

“One of the best posts I’ve read distinguishing the difference between Leftist Covenant-Breaking Jews and Biblical Covenant-Keeping Jews. I wish you could have gone for more clarity, but you definitely on the correct path.”

AND NOW I come to the purpose to today’s post. There was a time my blog posts were focused on Counterjihad issues more than combating government-Globalist Tyranny and Medical Tyranny. The Hamas atrocities has reawakened some of those Counterjihad memories. FOREMOST to remember about Islam if you are a non-Muslim (e.g., a Christian, a worshipper of Judaism, any non-Islamic religion, LOOK OUT if you are LGBTQ, or an atheist), Islamic revered writings DEMAND you convert to Islam or live a second-class limited Rights not offensive Islamic doctrine SUBMISSION (aka a Dhimmi – some write “Zimmi”) or DIE. That is basic Islamic doctrine! Any Muslim who denies this is lying, deceiving, or has been deceived by the equivalent of Islamic clergy. Places to examine the brutal truth about Islam toward non-Muslims shown by embedded links to a bunch of “HERE”: HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and dear God in Heaven do your own critical thinking searches.

AND NOW this takes me to an interesting Canada Free Press post I ran into yesterday by Kelly O’Connell, who posits the idea the Hamas attacks on Israel on Israel might be a part of the Islamic mindset of the Mahdi ushering in the resumption of the domination of the Muslim New World Order. To be fair Mahdi doctrine is usually associated with the minority Shia Islam which dominates modern Iran but O’Connell touches on that a bit. Hamas are terrorist who subscribe more with the majority Sunni Islam doctrines associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. I’ll let you decide if O’Connell’s speculation is accurate or not. Since Hamas (Sunnis) funding and weaponry comes from Iran (Shia), I think he might be onto something.

My Christian Zionist perspective that undoubtedly is Politically Incorrect: If there is a Mahdi-entity, it is an Antichrist demonic entity ushering in an End Times scenario that could hasten the return of the ACTUAL Messiah – Jesus Christ the Son of God and King of Kings and Lord of Lords. Or another glitch in history as we Believers in the Risen Savior await His prophesied RETURN. Only God Almighty knows.

JRH 10/17/23

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The Attack on Israel is Religious, Meant to Awaken Islamic Messiah Mahdi

Biden Admin Fuels Islamic Eschatology by Blindly Funding a ‘Necessary Apocalypse’

By Kelly O’Connell

October 16, 2023

Canada Free Press

It’s entirely understandable that most Westerners believe the current 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel is simply lust for revenge and anger over Gaza’s conditions. But, wait! Instead, it’s astounding to know the ultimate impulse in Iran funding Hamas is to usher in the age of the Mahdi, as their mighty savior. This war to utterly destroy Israel is now led by Iran’s Shia Islam and seeks to bring the End of Days. So, Biden’s gift of $6 billion to Iran guaranteed war would result, given their theology. See below…

Shia Muslims Believe Massive War Saves World: that unless a colossal war comes to engage Israel, then their savior, the Mahdi, cannot reappear to bring the peace and blessings promised for 14 centuries.. The Iranians behind these attacks feel uniquely placed to render the end times, achieved by the return of the Mahdi from deep sleep. Iranians are almost wholly Shia Muslim, who believe in a mystical character named the Mahdi:

Rumble VIDEO (30:32-Minutes of Kelly O’Connell audio): The Attack on Israel is Religious, Meant to Awaken Islamic Messiah Mahdi

[Posted by ConservativeAnthem

Published October 16, 2023

… MORE DESCRIPTION]

Twelver Shia offers the story of the hidden imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, or simply the “mahdi,” meaning “divinely guided one.” In 874 A.D., the six-year-old son of the eleventh imam went into hiding to protect himself from the persecution of the reigning Abbasid empire. The Shia believe that he hid himself in a cave below a mosque in Samarra; this cave is blocked by a gate that the Shia call “Bab-al Ghayba,” or the “Gate of Occultation.” This is one of the most sacred sites in Shi’a Islam, and the faithful gather here to pray for the return of the twelfth imam. The occultation of the mahdi, known as “ghaybah” in Arabic, will end with his return to the world for the Last Judgment. This period will be marked by violent upheavals and attacks upon the faithful, but in the end, the mahdi will deliver the world to peace.

The Fervid Desire of Iran to release the curative of the pseudo-Christ Mahdi, to heal the world and bring peace by, ironically, destroying all non Muslims, as often explained by past Iranian President Ahmadinejad:

“Ex-President Ahmadinejad said the “Islamic Republic has no other mission but to prepare for the establishment of a world government . . . as the Imam [Mahdi] runs and manages the universe.” And the “Mahdavi perception [Mahdism] and view are the perfect method for the administration and direction of the world.” He defined Mahdism as the “defining strategy of the Islamic Republic,” a “comprehensive plan and strategic policy,” and a “political regime and world view.” Within that context, it’s determined the Mahdi’s advent is “inevitable” but also that it can be “accelerated” through human action.”

Peace by Death: It’s important to accept that the Islamic path to peace is achieved by killing every person who is not Muslim. Consider, in 1,400 AD, Muslim Warlord Tamerlane killed 90,000 non-Muslim men in one day, taking similar numbers of women into sexual slavery. See: “The Apocalypse & Islam”

Muslims Borrowed ideas and facts from other religions. For instance, The Mahdi himself is never mentioned in the Quran, yet the Mahdi is an epic figure in both the Shia and Sunni Muslim religion.

See The Coming Final Battle, regarding Muslim end times views:

“While Muslim apocalyptic thought is diverse and complex, most narratives contain some elements easily recognized by Christians and Jews: at an undetermined time in the future the world will end, a messianic figure will return to the earth, and God will pass judgment on all people, justly relegating some to heaven and some to hell.”

The Quran “Is not an apocalyptic book,” so Muslims are “forced to turn to supplementary materials—including the words attributed to Muhammad, the Bible, global conspiracy theories about Judaism, stories of UFO abductions, and theories about the Bermuda Triangle—when discussing “the confused period” that comes before these final events.”

See “The Mahdi: The History of the Prophesized Figure”:

‘The Mahdi’s hiding in a “Major Occultation is the most important theological event for Shi’a Muslims since the death of the Prophet Mohammed, and it also represents the single most important theological break between the Shi’a and the Sunni.” & “Unlike all other men (including Prophet Mohammed), the Mahdi did not die but was instead withdrawn or hidden from the world of humanity, remaining until Allah was ready for him to return and usher in the End of Days.”’

The Mahdi is Not From the Quran, or in earliest literature, yet evolved into becoming the equivalent to Christ. The above source states,

“In Imamite Shi’ism, belief in messianic Imam (12th & last Imam) becomes not only a basic tenet of the creed, but also the foundation on which the entire spiritual edifice of the Imamite religion rests.” In turn, he became an unparalleled spiritual figure; & simultaneously still serving as spiritual guide for the faithful – hence his title “The Imam of Time” – and also the future messianic Mahdi who will return and judge the world for its crimes, ushering in an era of perfect worship and governance.”

Islam’s Confusingly Distorted Bible Characters: who are re-written to fit a Muslim Mahdi narrative, presented at the End Times, strangely described below:

“In the final days, Muslim scholars hold, Jesus comes again. But He’s a Muslim version of Jesus, Isa Al-Maseeh, a genuinely “false prophet” as described in Revelation, performing miraculous signs while being worshiped. This Muslim “Isa” is the last in a series of prophets, all testifying to Muhammad and God’s final revelation. Zealous for Islam, Isa Al-Maseeh descends and destroys all crosses, converts Christians from the most abominable sins against Alla[h], and kills all Christians and others who refuse to convert to Islam.”

When Will the Mahdi Appear? According to Iranian Twelver eschatology, when the Dajji, or Anti-Christ appears. “There’s also an anti-Christ – Ad-Dajjalin Arabic. He’ll claim to be the Messiah, but is a liar. He’s a charismatic leader of the Jews, followed by them, but will finally be slaughtered by the Muslim Jesus.”

Dajji is Devil: The Dajji is described as follows: “The Prophet said (about the Dajjal) that he is one eyed, his right eye is as if a protruding out grape. The Dajjal will be blind from the left eye and upon his eye would be a thick mark (or covering); on his forehead would be written (the three letters) ka fa ra or kafir — or ‘Infidel’.” And “He will be a young man with a ruddy complexion, with thick curly hair, blind or defective in the right eye, his left eye will be covered with a thick piece of flesh growing at the edge of his eye.”

Dajjal’s character:

The Dajjal, False Messiah or Antichrist, plays a key role in Muslim eschatology. He’s ‘the apocalyptic opponent of Jesus’, appearing in the last days. He’s ‘a malevolent creature in human form.’ His arrival will follow the appearance of the Mahdi’. He claims to be Jesus, and his forces attack the Mahdi, while almost defeating him when the real Jesus descends from heaven. Working together, Jesus & Mahdi destroy the Dajjal and his army. After some time, Jesus and the Mahdi will die and the various signs of the end times will culminate in the Resurrection and the Day of Judgment. See Dajjal: The Anti-Christ: Research, Critical Analysis…

One Teaching Claims Syria as the final place of the Muslim Apocalypse War of the Mahdi: “Dabiq is the name of a small town in northern Syria. According to Muslim eschatological tradition, it will be the site of a major battle that will be fought between Muslims and Christian invaders, a battle that will be one of the signs that the end-times have begun.”

“The final apocalyptic battles occur north of Israel in the land of Magog (Rev. 20:7) during the reign of the final caliph, the Mahdi, who will rule over all Islam. The Mahdi wears a crown while on a white horse, matching Revelation 6:2. And with help of Isa Al-Maseeh (Muslim Jesus) will defeat Dajjal, resulting in a world where Islam finally is the only religion, all other religions being banished from the face of the earth.”

Now, 670 million Muslims, including an overwhelming majority in the Middle East and western Asia, expect to see the Mahdi in their lifetimes—sometime during the first half of the 21st century. See Bad Moon Rising: Islam, Armageddon…

Are you religious, do you believe God is behind all these events? And how about treachery and religious support for war? And why does Joe Biden & Co. gather the very elements needed for war against Israel, including funding, official betrayal, nuclear programs and western propagandization? We need intervention by patriots and clear headed leaders, and the mercy of God to stave off this attempt top kick-start Islamic WWIII.

Kelly O’Connell is an author and attorney. He was born on the West Coast, raised in Las Vegas, and matriculated from the University of Oregon. After laboring for the Reformed Church in Galway, Ireland, he returned to America and attended law school in Virginia, where he earned a JD and a Master’s degree in Government. He spent a stint working as a researcher and writer of academic articles at a Miami law school, focusing on ancient law and society. He has also been employed as a university Speech & Debate professor. He then returned West and worked as an assistant district attorney. Kelly is now is a private practitioner with a small law practice in New Mexico.

Iran Nuke Deal and Obama’s Seeming Agenda for Israel

John R. Houk

© December 18, 2013

The Obama Administration via John Kerry negotiated a deal with Iran that bends to everything Iran needs to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I can say that because Iran’s promises – particularly to the United States – have a history of no value and downright betrayal of international protocol. Can you say Tehran U.S. Embassy invasion and American hostages in 1979?

With this lack of Iranian trustworthiness Obama spearheads a nuclear deal with Iran based more on trust than verification which in the meantime sells out our principle Middle Eastern ally Israel and throws a monkey wrench in utilizing Saudi Arabia as a Middle Eastern friend. The biggest concern I have is the implication that the Iran Nuke Deal is probably to be used by Obama to further demonstrate his displeasure with Israel for not laying down to the outrageous demands of the Palestinian Authority for a sovereign Arab state called Palestine including robbing Jewish Israel of the Holy Temple site because conquering Muslims built a couple of Mosques on the holiest site of all Judaism. Obama’s pretensions for selling out the miracle of the Jewish State is certainly a part of reasoning for having the USA cozy up to such an evil nation as Radical Islamic Shi’ite Twelver Iran.

Now I appreciate that Saudi Arabia is uniting with their hated enemy the Jewish state of Israel against Iran, but that odd coupling has more to do with an existential National Interest against the designs of Iranian regional hegemonic desires. Israel is a Jewish state that all Muslims (Sunni and Shia) are taught to hate from their holy writings in the Quran, Hadith and Sira. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni nation dominated by Wahhabi Muslim Clerics that most Sunnis find a bit threatening with their purist back to Mohammed religious ideology. The things is about Saudi Arabia being Sunni is that Sunnis and Shias consider each other heretics by virtue of a disagreement on Caliphate succession in which the Sunnis ultimately began to dominate. That thousand year disagreement is showing up in the present between the Saudis and the Iranians in Islamic religious domination. For existential reasons the Saudis cannot allow a nuclear armed Iran. Hence, Israel and Saudi Arabia are unlikely allies against Iran and Obama’s idiotic diplomatic effort for America to trust a Muslim dominated nation like Iran.

Israel’s existential concerns about Iran are purely centered on Iran’s constant threat to wipe Israel off the map so that Muslims can once again rule the land of Jewish heritage. That means a hegemonic Iran will aid the Arabs (both Sunni and Shia) that call themselves Palestinians or support that so-called Arab-Palestinians to destroy Israel. If such a destruction of Israel was successful only the foolishness of Westerners like Obama would believe Iran would allow a Sunni controlled Arab sovereign state to exist. Or at least to exist independent of Shi’ite Twelver Iran’s control as a client state. Thus Hezbollah (Shi’ite-Lebanese Arabs) and Shi’ite-Alawite Arab Syrians are very important to Iran.

In case you haven’t notices there has been a slow genocide of the existing Christians stuck in Muslim controlled nations. And the Jews of the Middle East have mostly congregated in Israel. Jewish genocidal extermination would commence a la Nazi-style under the worst possible circumstances of the West laying down for a Caliphate agenda. The Quran, Hadith, Sira and Sharia Law encoded in Islam would lead to another global Jihad attempt to finish Islamic global domination. History shows how conquered people in Islamic imperialism fair under Islam. Keep in mind the Middle East, North Africa, Anatolia (Turkey) and Muslim Eastern Europe (Balkans) were all Christian lands before Islamic imperialism.

The dhimma program utilized in Islam essentially transformed the Christian majority into the minority population. The dhimmi life imposed on non-Muslims was so oppressive that massive populations converted to Islam to leave dhimmitude behind. Consider some of these quotes pertaining to Islamizing the majority population:

…

“The two pillars of the nascent Islamic state in the conquered lands were the army — formed by Arab tribes and the slaves taken as spoils of war — and the conquered masses: tributaries, slaves, freed men, and converts, a workforce which fed the economic sector. The third pillar — juridical power — was being elaborated. It would undertake to balance and rectify the enormous demographic disparity between the conquered Peoples of the Book and the Muslims. – the legal institution would formulate a collection of laws which gradually whittled down the rights of the dhimmis and confined them to a cramped condition, by transferring to the umma all the key positions that the dhimmis had formerly held.” Pp. 69, 70

…

“In the lands conquered by jihad the Peoples of the Book formed majorities, among whom the Arabs of the first wave of Islamization and the Turks of the second wave were in the minority. Presumably the complex and little-known processes that transformed those majorities into minorities covered some three or four centuries for each wave of Islamization. By contracting it, the expression ‘religious minorities’ reverses a chronological process that had spread over centuries, whose result — the minority condition — is taken as its starting point.”

“This interpretation, which omits the essential phase when irreversible changes occurred, conceals the political aspect of dhimmitude and reduces it exclusively to a religious minority status. In addition, the formula becomes inadequate for certain regions, such as the Balkans, where non-Muslims were in the majority until the nineteenth century” P. 243

“Today, it would seem absurd to describe the Rumanian, Serbian, Bulgarian, Greek and Israeli nations as former ‘tolerated religious minorities.’ Similarly, the common cliche second-class citizens has no meaning, because the dhimmis were not citizens and the term ‘second-class’ is devoid of the dhimma’s historical and juridical substrata.” Pp. 243,244

“dhimmitude reveals another reality. Here are peoples who, spread the Judeo-Christian civilization as far as Europe and Russia. Jews, Christians, and Zoroastrians, conquered by nomadic bands, taught their oppressors, with the patience of centuries, the subtle skills of governing empires, the need for law and order, the management of finances, the administration of town and countryside, the rules of taxation rather those of pillage, the sciences, philosophy, literature, and the arts, the organization and transmission of knowledge — in short, the rudiments and foundations of civilization.” P. 264

Decimated by razzias in the countryside, they sought refuge in the towns which they developed and embellished. Branded with opprobrium, the conquerors still chose to drag them from region to region in order to revive ravaged lands and restore ruined towns. Once again, they built, again they worked. Once again they were driven out, again pillaged and ransomed. And as they dwindled, drained of their blood and spirit, civilization itself disappeared, decadence stagnated, barbarism reigned over lands which, previously, when they were theirs, were lands of civilization, of crops and of plenty.” P. 265

“The elites who fled to Europe took their cultural baggage with them, their scholarship, and their knowledge of the classics of antiquity. Therefore, in the Christian lands of refuge — Spain, Provence, Sicily, Italy — cultural centers developed where Christians and Jews from Islamized lands taught to the young Europe the knowledge of the old pre-Islamic Orient, formerly translated into Arabic by their ancestors.” P. 265 (Quotes from Bat Ye’or in reviewing book “The Decline of Eastern Christianity, From Jihad to Dhimmitude;” The Middle East After the Islamic Conquest; By Rev. Bassam Michael Madany; UnAshamedOfTheGospel.org [Middle East Resources])

See also a book review of Bat Ye’or’s book “Understanding Dhimmitude” posted on FrontPage Mag dated 7/19/13.

In understanding the theopolitical mindset encoded into Islam, you have to realize Obama’s Chamberlain-like nuke deal with Iran at worst will lead to a collapse of the global earth-governance system modelled after Western historical evolution – a global attack to spread Islam resulting in the nations of the earth choosing sides in WWIII. At best the Iran Nuke Deal will lead to an effective response by Israel which will also culminate in WWIII.

You can see how this nuke deal will threaten Israel, right? AND in the midst of this sell-out to Israel Secretary of State John Kerry is the instrument of President Barack Hussein Obama to twist the arms of Israel to a nation-destroying plan to establish a Jew-Hating sovereign Palestinian state. Let’s call it the Obama-Kerry Progressive One-State Solution for the Holy Land. I use the word “Progressive” because as time progresses Israel could again face a combination of a Diaspora and a Holocaust. First Obama buddies up with Iran, then lays the groundwork for forced indefensibility. Check out this small excerpt from Caroline Glick’s editorial from yesterday:

Kerry’s framework deal will involve the mass immigration of hundreds of thousands of foreign-born Arabs, who have been living in al-Qaida-, Hamas- and PLO -controlled UN-run “refugee camps,” for the past four generations to the new state of “Palestine.”

Kerry’s plan will require Israeli society to destroy its cohesion through the dismemberment and destruction of hundreds of Jewish communities. As occurred before the Gaza withdrawal, it will require the government to oversee the demonization and criminalization of well over three million law abiding, patriotic Israeli citizens who oppose the mass expulsions.

Kerry’s parameters will require Israel to surrender its ability to defend itself against foreign aggression and Palestinian attacks. As for the Palestinians, implementation of the Kerry parameters will guarantee that all moderate elements in their society, including among Israeli Arabs, will be overwhelmed and destroyed. The PLO state in Judea, Samaria and Jerusalem, like the Hamas state in Gaza, will be breeding grounds for global jihadists. They will actively incite, organize and oversee an armed insurrection of the Arabs of the Galilee and the Negev, meting out punishment for all dissenters.

Glick’s analysis is merely shortened in the excerpt above. You should read her entire article to get a full grasp of how Obama is terminating Israel’s existence by proxy.

JRH 12/18/13 (Hat Tip: CarolineGlick.com updates)

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On Syria – Obama Indecision may be Worse than Decisiveness

John R. Houk

© March 1, 2012

The current Syrian government – a client State of Iran – has been massacring its own citizens for months now. Unlike in Libya, the Obama solution is to look the other way. Why?

My best guess is that the consequences of aiding Syrian revolutionaries (the Sunni-Islam majority weary of the Alawite-Islam minority) have too many unknowns for President BHO to enter the fray to stop the genocide.

If BHO actively supports the revolutionaries will Iran have the guts to send troops into Syria to defend its client? And if Iran sends troops will Israel use the excuse to enter Syria militarily because of Iranian threats to wipe Israel off the map? Will the real Lebanese government in the form of Hezbollah offer military support to Assad’s Syria since Hezbollah is both a client of Iran and Shias like Alawites are Shias? Again, will Hezbollah action force Israel’s entrance into Syria?

I am sure there are other possible consequences that BHO does not want to deal with in an election year; nonetheless you can see that revolution in Syria could be the first domino leading to at least a Middle East regional war or worst WWIII.

If Obama Foreign Policy spinelessness continues his indecision might tip the first domino making things worse in a war somewhat like Britain and France waited on Hitler to have some common sense until the Nazis invaded Poland in 1939.

Below are some Leslie J. Sacks thoughts on the slaughter in Iran which is a bit different than my thoughts.

JRH 3/1/12 (Read the Sacks thoughts at the end of my thoughts at SlantRight 2.0)

Will Post-America Iraq Disintegrate?

John R. Houk

© April 14, 2011

The Iraq Surge was pretty much a successful military venture; however it did not wrap things up in terms of reliable stability for Iraq as a sovereign nation that roughly has a majority population of Iran sympathizing Shias, a lesser minority of Sunnis who ruled the nation for a half century and the ever disenfranchised Kurds who tend to Sunni Muslims but are viewed as second class citizens by Sunni and Shia Arabs as well as by the Shias of Iran.

When President G.W. Bush finally rallied enough political support both at home and with the Coalition of the Willing to depose psycho-dictator Saddam Hussein, there were brief moments of the thought to divide Iraq (SA HERE) into three regional nations to accommodate Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. I say brief because it became evident a divided Iraq would make the Iraq area an easy target for Iranian invasion especially since the Iraqi Shias are very sympathetic to the Mullah ruled Iran. Also there is the question of who controls and/or benefits from the still profitable amounts in the ground in Iraq. There is no doubt one group would invade the other group to gain access to the oil to benefit which ever tribal minded Shia, Sunni or Kurd. Not to mention that Turkey was prepared to go to war to make sure a sovereign Kurdish nation did not exist on their southern border (See this possible recent development).

Because of Iran hegemonic regional designs coupled with a nationalistic Islamist Turkish government dominating that still hates Kurds, when the USA leaves Iraq the thin glue that has held the current Iraq together may dissolve rapidly. This is problematic because America does have an invested interest in the prayer that Iraq stabilizes internally. The disintegration of an Iraq central government will make Iraq a target for Iran to usurp the Shia portion of Iraq.

Also Turkey’s Islamist government has been reaching out to Iran lately. I see a possibility of Turkey and Iran clandestinely pulling off a form of a Hitler-Stalin pact. That pact led Hitler to invade Poland from the west and Stalin’s Red Army invading Poland from the east. A Turkey-Iran pact might look like Iran’s military annexing Iraq’s Shia locations and Turkey annexing the Kurd areas of northern Iraq.

Since I am by far no-means a geopolitical expert (I am just a no-name blogger), check out the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) email which speculates with clarity Iraq’s situation and why it matters to American National Interests.

JRH 4/14/11

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ISW in Brief: An Uncertain Future for the U.S.-Iraq Partnership

By Ramzy Mardini

April 14, 2011

ISW Email

Last week, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates visited Iraq to discuss the timetable for the U.S. military’s withdrawal, currently scheduled to conclude by the end of this year. During his three-day visit, Secretary Gates met with Iraqi leaders and communicated the United States’ willingness to extend its troop presence beyond 2011 should the Iraqis make such a request. His visit comes amidst growing concerns that a December 2011 withdrawal will leave a dangerous security vacuum in Iraq.

Secretary Gates’ visit coincides with growing Iraqi sentiment against an extended U.S. forces presence in Iraq. In stark contrast to Gates’ offer of an extension, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other members of his coalition have rejected the possibility of a continued U.S. military presence. Maliki reportedly told Gates during their meeting that his government opposes “any presence of U.S. troops or other foreign troops” and that Iraqi forces were capable of maintaining security and “countering any attack,” suggesting they were no longer in need of U.S. support. Maliki’s argument, however, contradicts statements made by senior Iraqi military officials that they will require additional U.S. assistance for years to come.

Yet, the strongest opposition to a continued U.S. presence comes from the firebrand Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose party holds 40 seats in the 325-seat Council of Representatives, more than any individual party in Iraq. Following last year’s election, Maliki relied on Sadr’s backing in order to retain his position as prime minister. Should Maliki come to support an extension by way of a renegotiated Security Agreement, he would surely lose Sadr’s support, a move which could jeopardize his premiership. If Maliki were to lose Sadrist backing, he would have to seek alliances elsewhere. Yet, even Iraqiyya—another major parliamentary bloc—has expressed mixed views toward a sustained U.S. presence.

The Sadrists have also been working to rally popular sentiment in favor of U.S. withdrawal, chiefly through anti-occupation demonstrations. On April 9, just one day after Gates’ departure, tens of thousands of Sadr loyalists flooded the streets in Baghdad to mark the eighth anniversary of the ousting of Saddam, with anti-American banners and slogans demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces. During the rally, Sadrist spokesman Salah al-Obaidi threatened to reinstate the Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) militia and escalate popular opposition in response to a sustained U.S. military presence. A recent report in al-Hayat suggests that the leaders of the Iranian-linked militant group, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, would consider rejoining the Sadrists if JAM is armed and reactivated, which would further reinforce JAM’s ability to destabilize Iraq.

Though an extension of the U.S. presence is a politically unattractive prospect for Iraqis, there are many unresolved issues that threaten to unravel recent security gains. Unsettled territorial disputes between Arabs and Kurds—particularly in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk—may escalate into a civil war between the Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi security forces should the U.S. military presence be removed. Recent events have demonstrated the importance of a U.S. presence to mediate between the two factions. A recent incident in which the KRG deployed Peshmerga forces south of Kirkuk City, without consulting U.S. and Iraqi officials, heightened tensions and required Vice President Joe Biden to intervene to defuse the conflict. Both sides have come to the verge of armed conflict on multiple occasions, only to be deterred by the presence of U.S. forces.

Additionally, though extremist groups have been degraded, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) remains active, and could seek to fill the security vacuum left by a U.S. withdrawal. In one of their deadliest attacks in recent years, on March 29, 2011, AQI attacked a government building in Tikrit, killing 56 people and wounding scores more, including several provincial councilmen and the chief of police of Salah-ad-Din governorate. This incident demonstrates that AQI retains its ability to conduct high-profile attacks, prompting questions and concerns about the readiness of Iraq’s security forces.

Though the Iraqi military has made significant strides towards self-sufficiency, it remains unable to fill critical external defense functions, like protecting its borders and controlling its airspace. For example, Iraq’s Air Force lacks sufficient aircraft and trained pilots to defend Iraqi airspace from incursions. Moreover, reduced capabilities in logistics and intelligence also limit Iraq’s defenses. It is also likely that, following a complete U.S. withdrawal, other interested parties, such as Iran, may seek to expand their influence in the region by exploiting Iraq’s vulnerabilities.

All of these elements make a continued U.S.-Iraq partnership especially important post-2011; however, time is running out, and delicate diplomatic engagement will be required if any agreement is to be reached.

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Will Post-America Iraq Disintegrate?

John R. Houk

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ISW in Brief: An Uncertain Future for the U.S.-Iraq Partnership

Ramzy Mardini is a Research Analyst at ISW.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.

www.understandingwar.org

ISW is a 501(c)(3) organization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. All contributions are tax deductible to the fullest extent of the law.

Saudi Gulf Nations Preparing to Send Militaries to Bahrain

John R. Houk

Bahrain is a near microscopic dot on the map that otherwise might be thought of as Saudi territory. Bahrain is a micro-Sheikdom with oil wealth and the port of the U.S. Navy 5^th Fleet.

PERSIAN GULF NATION MAP

Little tiny Bahrain has been besieged by Shi’ites in their tiny island nation who have revolted over the absolute monarchy (officially constitutional but you know…) that controls the government and which is a Sunni royal family. The unrest in Bahrain is not new but the recent intensity is undoubtedly a manifestation of Muslim unrest that began in Tunisia and spread across the Maghreb and the Muslim Middle East to change the old regimes to a more Ummah (Islamic Community) oriented government for the people.

The difference in the unrest in Bahrain than in other grassroots Islamic revolts is that it has more to do with the majority Shi’ite have-nots unhappy with their existence as opposed to the privileged Sunni minority haves that are well off. Since this is a Shia vs. Sunni thing in Bahrain, who do you think might possibly use the unrest as a platform to flex muscles against its Sunni competitor? Yep, that would be Iran. This is especially the case since Arab Peninsula nations are preparing to send military assistance to tiny Bahrain in the form of troops with the big dog being Saudi Arabia.

JRH 3/14/11

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